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Why This Matters: Looking at the details, CO2 emissions from developed nations remain roughly steady, decreasing by only -.2% annually for the next 30 years, while in developing countries CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1% a year. Countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are growing in key respects — they collectively have more population, a larger gross domestic product, more energy consumption, and because of the type of energy used, higher energy-related CO2 emissions. In addition, they estimate that renewables share of electricity consumption will rise from 28% in 2018 to 49% worldwide in 2050, with most of the growth in solar. But this does not appear to factor in major changes in policy such as carbon pricing and other incentives to reduce CO2 and increase the share of renewables providing electricity.
“As non-OECD countries continue to grow, so does their demand for air conditioning, electronics, personal vehicles, and other energy services. These countries also have relatively energy-intensive industries, primarily because energy-intensive industrial processes often shift to non-OECD countries. Energy consumption in non-OECD countries increases by 1.6% per year from 2018 to 2050, and energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 1.0% per year.”
President Trump trumpeted his trade deal with China, but so far it has been a bust, according to The Wall Street Journal — the Chinese have not purchased nearly the amount of energy (in terms of total dollars) as they promised — only $2B in oil and gas purchases against a commitment of $25B for this year.
A federal judge in Washington, DC ruled yesterday that the Dakota Access Pipeline must shut down and empty all its oil until the government completes an environmental review of the pipeline’s impacts, giving the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe, whose reservation lies downstream, a huge victory. Similarly, late in the day, the Supreme Court refused to overturn the order of a district judge that shut down construction of parts of the Keystone XL pipeline so it is also blocked for now.
Why It Matters: The Dakota and Keystone XL news is greatly tempered by the fact that numerous other pipeline projects can go ahead despite their inadequate permit unless they are individually challenged in court and blocked.
Yesterday, Dominion Energy and its partner, Duke Energy, announced they were ending a 600-mile natural gas project that would have cost at least $8 billion to complete. As the Richmond Times-Dispatch wrote, Dominion and Duke canceled the construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline in the face of mounting regulatory uncertainty caused by a federal court […]
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