Volkswagen Will Lead BEV Market By 2030

Photo: Volkswagen via Greentechmedia

A new analysis by energy industry experts predicts that Volkswagen will produce 14 million electric vehicles by 2028 and will leap from 10th place to the largest producer of BEVs, grabbing more than a quarter of all sales globally.  The company is even more bullish than analysts and are aiming for 22 million BEVs by ’28, but experts at Wood Mackenzie who did the analysis believe Volkswagen won’t be able to secure such a big percentage of the world’s EV batteries.

Why This Matters:  Making the switch globally to BEVs is one of the key ways to drive down CO2 emissions in the next 10 years.  It is good news that one of the major global auto manufacturers is moving so aggressively into this market and will drive prices down.  At the other end of the price spectrum, Tesla would have to add a lower-priced model to begin to compete with VW.  Interestingly, the key to market domination is batteries — and Volkswagen must lock in 30% of the world’s batteries in order to its 25% of BEV sales.  So VW also has long term supply contracts for lithium in place and just invested $1B in a Swedish battery company.  This is going to get interesting, especially in light of BlackRock’s announcement yesterday about sustainability driving its investments from now on.

Kia Also Making a Play

Kia also announced this week that it will produce eleven all-electric models by the year 2025 — its first fully electric model launches in 2021.  Echoing the words of Blackrock CEO, Kia’s chief executive, Han-Woo Park, said, “With the turbulent changes in the automotive industry, today is also an opportunity for Kia Motors to radically transform itself into a global company that specializes in innovations that focus on customer value.”  Kia would like to have a roughly 7% share of the global market for electric vehicles (excluding China) by 2026.

Tesla Will Make BEVs in China

Tesla is building a factory in China and good progress there has led to an increase in Tesla’s stock price to more than $500 a share for the first time, even though the company did make a profit in 2019.  The new factory is in pre-production now and mass production is expected to begin by the end of the year, which will double the number of their inexpensive Model 3s coming to market.  Tesla has reportedly received $1.6 B in financing in China at extremely favorable rates.

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